Posts by John Davis

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

I don't believe that the doctrine is correct, I think that no one should have a say over our own bodies. And I think you can make an argument on the merits of the morality of the issue.

But when you start to make estimates as to how many people die from a certain belief system then you have to make those estimates that can stand up to scrutiny and the method that you employed to come to that estimate. And I don't think that these estimates met that standard.

Certainly, other people think that but I honestly don't there are so many different issues that have come up with this estimate that makes me question the methodology behind the estimate.

I have not even brought up that one of the estimates is based on a single 18-year-old study and the second is based on a 6-year-old study. No references were made to any other study.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

Well, I have expressed how I think your methodology is flawed. You take a number that is mostly caused by a certain number of conditions and correlate that with the entire JW population to come up with a number. If all JWs were exclusively having those conditions then yes your methodology would be correct but since they are not then it is flawed.

Again I think you are doing something noble for trying to come up with a number but there is a number of factors that you have to put into your evaluation to come up with an educated estimate.

Edit: Also as you state it doesn't include third world countries. That would have it's own complications even if all JWs took blood, such as the acquisition, storage and administration of the blood. Even a simple thing as administering a vaccine is complicated in third world countries let alone the storage and administration of blood which is much more complicated. Such as blood having a very specific best used by, has to be stored in very specific and complex situations, the testing of the blood for both pathogens and type for proper administration and the need for qualified professionals to actually administer it.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

Lee Elder:

You stated:

Bear in mind, you are reviewing the work of one of the best experts in this entire field. An author who has been published more times in peer reviewed medical journals than anyone else on this matter. Dr. Muramoto has produced a very, very conservative estimate which is precisely why we use it. It completely ignores all deaths related to the three primary causes of morbidity in JW's related to the blood issue.

What are his credentials? What can be read on BMJ is 2 articles from the journal on medical ethics. What other papers has he written and what subjects did he write on? What is he board certified in? Is the doctor a Hematologist, Cardiologist, Thoracic Surgeon, a Hospitalist?

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

TD you use examples such as Hodgkin's Lymphoma and AML as your examples as to why the number offered by Lee Elder is low and that it is probably higher.

While yes both disease progression would require a blood transfusion in order to treat and possibly cure. The ratio of people with these two diseases is extremely low. For AML it is 0.5 percent of the population and for Hodgkins, it is only 204,000 people in the US with that disease for a population of 300 Million people. So yes if you add these people in that would increase the number of preventable deaths but you cannot use that to correlate the numbers that Lee Elder is attempting to bring out.

So yes if you add these people in that would increase the number of preventable deaths but you cannot use that to correlate the numbers that Lee Elder is attempting to bring out. it is a sensationalized number. It could be very high but no one knows what the actual number or no reputable journal would present a paper like this in their publication because there are too many factors not included in order to come to an educated estimate.

Lee Elder: You stated that you had presented this at a conference, but you didn't state what conference it was? was there any push back on what was presented?

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

TD I completely agree with you that the original study did not include emergency situations or forms of cancer or rarer blood disorders. But that doesn't mean that Lee Elder's methodology isn't flawed. To have come up with a true estimate he would have had to consider a number of other factors, just a few of them:

Percentage of use of blood transfusions in the following scenarios:

Emergency Situations

Perioperative

Uses within Oncology diagnosis

Uses within haematology diagnosis

Then you would have to look at how common these diseases and forms of blood cancer are. Is it 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10,000

What is the rate of emergency care that hospital protocol would initiate a blood transfusion? For instance, in a 5 person car accident would it be necessary for all 5 people to receive a blood transfusion or 1 of them or none of them.

These are just 3 examples of questions that would need to be answered for a real estimate.

It is certainly a noble goal to come up with an estimate but what Lee Elder did was a very basic calculation without looking at all of the different variables that are necessary to make an educated estimate of the numbers.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

I never said that Watchtower doesn't do the same thing. I just said that it may not have been the best article to make your point with. Probably could have found another article to make the same point.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

Ruby, what means are you referring too? and what end do you refer too?

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

Also, Lee Elder, I don't think that study was trying to say what you wanted it to say. In that study, it shows that there is a 20% complication rate for blood transfusions and that those 1404 inadvertently avoided that complication by not accepting a blood transfusion. Whether that is true or not, the use of this study by the group's Medical Adviser may not have been the best study to use for the point that you were trying to make.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

Sorry Ruby. I guess I didn't put in the break correctly. I meant I am agreeing with you. I mixed up my comment to you with my critique of the methodology in the essay.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

John Davis

Ruby, I agree with you on your issues with the methodology that was used for this essay on AJWRB. The study that was used showed a range from actually 0 increase in morbid and mortality issues, for certain classifications of procedures, all the way up to 1.5% increase for cardiovascular procedures.

So yes a conservative number of 1% for cardiovascular procedures is correct. But then you say that because the Blood Bank Association says that 4 million people in the US need a blood

And yes, the math does show that for every 1000 people in the US 150 of them need a blood transfusion a year.

Though you then try and correlate a 1% increase in mortality for all procedures that blood could possibly be used. That is not a fair assessment of the original author's intention. While yes for certain procedures the mortality would be higher without a blood transfusion that is not all of the procedures that were even listed in the original study. The author even states this in his conclusion:

"The impact on the overall morbidity and mortality is not known; such a study would take decades of observation with large numbers of randomized patients and is unlikely to ever be done. Patients now often question the risk."